Notes

On 22nd April 2025 five armed militants attacked tourists near Pahalgam in Kashmir. India’s immediate response to the attack was the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, 1960 (IWT). The Indian Government declared that the IWT would be held in “abeyance” until Pakistan “credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism”. The suspension of the treaty was aimed at causing hurt to Pakistan, however such a result is unlikely.

The Unilateral Suspension was Unlawful

Article 12 of the IWT provides that the treaty shall remain in force until the nations (India and Pakistan) sign and ratify a subsequent treaty in that regard, terminating, or suspending the (original) treaty. Clearly leaving no scope for a unilateral suspension. India’s unilateral suspension of the treaty is a nullity.

The provisions of this Treaty, or,the provisions of this Treaty as modified under the provisions of Paragraph (3), shall continue in force until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.

Indus Water Treaty Art. XII (4)

This is the Best India Could Do

The Indus Water Treaty divides the water of the six rivers in the Indus river system. About 80 percent of the water of the system is allotted to Pakistan while only about 20 percent is used by India. It is also well known that India has sought to amend the IWT. There is no doubt that in terms of volume of water the IWT is steeped in favour of Pakistan. It is therefore only logical that India would seek to balance out this equation. In 2023 India sent notice to Pakistan to negotiate the IWT seeking amendments on grounds of climate change and other implementation challenges. Negotiations were not carried out, Pakistan adhered to the treaty.

In this context, India’s attempt to suspend the treaty unilaterally appears as the only possible method to re-negotiate the treaty with Pakistan. Article XII(3) of the treaty provides that the only method to modify the treaty is through a subsequent treaty, to be ratified by both parties amending the IWT. Pakistan receives about 80% of the share of the Indus Water System, while the remaining 20% falls to India’s basket. It is therefore only logical that Pakistan would not be keen in either terminating or re-negotiating the IWT. Setting Aside, Avoiding, Terminating, Suspending, Pausing etc., that is any action putting aside India’s obligations under the IWT was impossible through mutual consent, therefore, although not entirely ethical, India had to piggybacking on an act of terror to set aside its obligations.

Can we really Harm Pakistan?

Given that the action (abeyance of the treaty) was retaliatory in nature, it was aimed at causing some harm to Pakistan. Indian media has portrayed this action as a conquering act. Suspension of the Treaty has been equated to cutting of water supply to Pakistan. Let us evaluate this claims.

Keeping aside the auxiliary provisions of the IWT, i.e., establishment of Permanent Commission, Dispute Resolution Mechanism etc., India and Pakistan have agreed only on two points, first being that the water must be distributed in a certain distribution for certain specified purposes, and secondly, that both countries must exchange their data and documents with regard to construction or projects on the six rivers covered under the IWT.

Choosing to hold in abeyance the treaty would fundamentally impact these two provisions. That is, now:-

• India can stop sharing its documents and data on the flow of water; canals, and reservoirs on the rivers
• India can stop following the distribution/allocation of water as given in the treaty

Notably, Pakistan receives 80% of the Water, while India receives about 20%, and this stems only partly this is the only river system in Pakistan. Another important reason for such skewed distribution of water is that India does not have the requisite resources and infrastructure to harness more water than it has been allocated. A PIB press release (from 2019) shows that even in 2019 India could use only 95% of the total water allocated to it, with 3 proposed projects to utilize the remainder. It seems near impossible that India can stop such portion of Pakistan’s water that would cause any perceptible harm to Pakistan.