Mr. Chandrababu Naidu wants the people of Andhra Pradesh to have more kids. Last week he announced a Rs. 30,000 incentive on the birth of a third child, and Rs. 40,000 for a fourth child in the family.
Mr. Naidu’s reasoning is that Andhra Pradesh’ Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has come down from 3.0 (in the 1990s) to about 1.5 as of now. Whereas a good TFR is supposed to be anything above 2.0.
What is TFR? (See Comment Below) – Basically, more TFR – More Population Growth; Less TFR – Less Population Growth.
——-
What is TFR
plain English TFR means the number of children a woman will have in her lifetime. Clearly, if the TFR is 1, that means the woman (and her husband) are contributing “one child” to the population of that region. That means, give it about 20 years, and the population of that place will actually start to dip. Why? Once the parents of this hypothetical child die, you would end up with two people dead, but only 1 person alive (the child).
But lets say the TFR is 2. In that case, The woman (and her husband) contribute two children to the population. Therefore, presuming they die the same day, once they are dead, the net population would once again remain stable because – two people produce two other people, and then they die.
——-
Mr. Naidu does not want to wake up one day to find that “Andhra” is gone (the population has dwindled). This is a valid fear for a politician. After all, he is who he is, because of the people of Andhra. If they are gone – He is gone.
Let us say there is a fresh census, and new constituencies are drawn up, how many seats would Andhra Pradesh contribute to the Parliament then? It would depend on Andhra’s population, and states like Uttar Pradesh, with its 2.35 TFR, and Bihar with its 3.0 TFR are already much ahead in the competition. [Art. 82 of the Constitution calls for Census every ten years – and readjustment of Lok Sabha]
Why is the plan Problematic?
The plan is sinister! It proposes Rs. 25k for the birth of second child, 30k for the third, and 40k for the fourth. If I were given the opportunity to draft this scheme I would have made the juvenile mistake of giving out a fixed sum, say Rs. 20k for every child born, be it the first, or the fifth. But Mr. Naidu is strategic, He doesn’t want Andhra to be filled with kids, he wants every family to be filled with kids.
Importing video game analogy, to reach to the “fourth level”, you must go through the first, second and third levels. Similarly, to reach to the third level, you must first clear the first, and the second levels. Basically, the road to 3, and 4, will have to pass through 1, and 2 necessarily. If you want the 40k prize, you must produce 4 kids. Notice how, a single child is of no value. Is he of no worth? Do his parents not need support?
Simply put, to have a fourth child, you must have three children before him.
Brushing all these concerns aside, can Mr. Naidu promise me, that in the implementation of his ambitious scheme, no woman will be raped at home? No man will force himself upon his wife? Can he promise me that every child born out of this scheme would be one out of love, and affection? Can he promise me, that he has not just blown the bugle for an ethnic war in India?
Anyway, all I can do is comment. All the best Mr. Naidu, with Hum do, Humare Chaar.
Leave a Reply